Mar 30, 2021Why Stimulus Can’t Stave Off the Impending Market CorrectionWhen analyzing the markets, it is important to differentiate between one’s longer-term and shorter-term outlook. Our longer-term outlook, spelled out in detail in our newest Wellington Letter issue, is focused primarily on the government’s record-breaking efforts to stimulate the economy, flooding the financial system with easy money and credit. While…Markets5 min readMarkets5 min read
Mar 10, 2021Bert Dohmen: “Don’t Fall for the Bull Trap!”“Buy the dip” is now the rallying cry on Wall Street. We wrote during short-term selloffs the past two months that the brief declines were a test to get traditional money managers and investors conditioned to buy such “dips.” When the real plunge finally starts, which may be what we’re…Stock4 min readStock4 min read
Mar 3, 2021Bert Dohmen Cautions the Rout in the Treasury Markets is Far From OverSomething very abnormal is going on with the central banks of the world. They seem to be fearful that the entire system of debt might implode. Their solution? Create more debt. The Treasury bond markets, however, may have had enough for the near term. In last week’s trading, the prices…Treasury Bonds6 min readTreasury Bonds6 min read
Feb 4, 2021The Short Squeeze: Another Failed Reality Check for the MarketsWith last week’s historic short squeeze by retail traders appearing to taper off, the wave of buying euphoria that had prevailed in early January is now returning into the markets. Analysts in the media continue to discuss the “strong” gains claimed by the market in 2021, using the familiar yardsticks…Trading4 min readTrading4 min read
Jan 29, 2021A New Strategy for Outperforming the MarketsThis week confirmed once again everything we have written over the past year: forget valuations and other metrics. Determine the planned ‘agenda.’ Yes, markets are manipulated, and now more so than ever. That means that our methods of technical analysis at Dohmen Capital Research, which measure factors like money flows…Passive6 min readPassive6 min read
Dec 3, 2020Is It Time for Bitcoin to Break Out, Or Will the Double Top Lead to Another Big Plunge?Once again, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are all over the news. We have seen such periods for these digital currencies in the past, many of which ended in financial pain for the bulls. Will that be repeated now, or is something more bullish potentially ahead? We have been correctly skeptical…Bitcoin5 min readBitcoin5 min read
Dec 1, 2020Excessive Optimism, Record Highs, and Warning SignsNovember was a spectacular month for the stock market. Bolstered by newfound vaccine optimism and the flow of stimulus from the world’s central banks, the S&P 500 closed on Monday with a more than 10% monthly gain, finishing its best month since April. In general, however, it is always best…Stock Market5 min readStock Market5 min read
Nov 12, 2020Will the Rally End in a January Bull Trap?In the past few weeks of trading, both the bulls and the bears had their patience tested. We’ve warned many times this year that the period surrounding and following the election would be a tumultuous one. This week, in the aftermath of Pfizer’s report on their COVID-19 vaccine candidate, markets…Stocks4 min readStocks4 min read
Oct 19, 2020Why the Stock Market is Finally Paying Attention to the EconomyLast week (October 6th) investors were taken by surprise as the Dow suddenly plummeted over 600 points in a sharp 20-minute selloff late in the trading session. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 likewise plunged into negative territory, completely reversing what was otherwise a mild up-day for stocks. The…Economy6 min readEconomy6 min read
Sep 29, 2020Why the Melt-Up is Now Melting DownThe tech-fueled rally from the March lows is now over. While some may have called the rise a new bull market, we declared it a “bear market rally.” With the selloff since the September 2 top, the major indices are now in or very near correction territory. The NASDAQ Composite…Stock Market5 min readStock Market5 min read
